Investment Banking Monitor: Announced September activity declines across products

September announced investment banking (IBanking) activity inflected negatively YoY (-15%), although rose 19% MoM, driven by YoY weakness across M&A, ECM and DCM. 3Q26 represented an investment banking air pocket that we believe could continue into 4Q26 as well. Announced monthly M&A volumes were -18% YoY and flat MoM, ECM volumes fell 23%/30% YoY/MoM, and DCM volumes changed by -14%/+34% YoY/MoM. YTD investment banking volumes are now up +16% YoY at end-September (+30%/65%/8% across M&A/ECM/DCM), 5pp lower vs. end-August. YTD M&A announcements are up 30% YoY, with growth mostly driven by large-cap, strategics, Europe, and the US. Based on our leading indicator model, we forecast 18% next twelve months (NTM) industry M&A growth, -2pp vs. last month. We appear to be at the midpoint of the IBanking cycle, although with a 3Q26 M&A air pocket that could continue into 4Q26; long-term ingredients for the M&A market to grow remain healthy. Preferred Buys: EVR, LCLN, PJT.