Global Memory & Storage: Debunking the bear thesis on ASP price growth deceleration

Memory and HDD stocks are down significantly from their June peak and have underperformed over the past month. We address the main bear thesis that a slowdown in DRAM and NAND price increases indicates we are close to peak and an imminent downturn. We disagree for three reasons. First, a mid-teens percent forecasted quarterly sequential increase in ASP remains an exceptional pricing environment by any historical standard (90th-95th percentile over the past 15 years) and demonstrates continued under-supply. Second, the base effect: because the absolute per-GB price increase is applied to a dramatically higher base (more than 5x over the past year), each incremental cent per GB translates into a lower percentage increase, yet the ~5 cents/GB step in C3Q26 and C4Q26 is the highest in 15 years apart from 1HCY26 and equals roughly 100% of COGS/GB. Third, LTA price ceilings are diluting headline ASP growth: Sandisk has over 50% of FY27 bits and roughly two-thirds of FY28 bits under New Busin