China WFE Import Tracker (Sep 2026): Sept YTD YoY -4%, import recovering maintained

We track monthly Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China through China Customs data and provide an update on Sep 2026. September imports were $4.7bn, +26% MoM and -6% YoY, with Sept YTD YoY at -4%; monthly imports remain above the monthly average and the full year is on track to be flattish versus 2025. Litho imports fell 1% MoM and 29% YoY, continuing to recover from April's historical low, with YTD YoY at -12%. By region, imports from Singapore and Taiwan, China grew 18%/42% YTD; the US+Malaysia+Singapore share reached 40% YTD versus 35% last year, while Shanghai and Beijing remained the largest at 41%/18%. Our regression models imply China revenue growth for ASML, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TEL, Kokusai, Screen and Advantest. We believe China demand will remain solid over the next few years, driven by capacity expansion particularly in advanced logic, reinforced by ASML's plan to raise DUV capacity by 30% over two years.