Semis Tour: Takeaways from Chairman, C-level and factory visits

Goldman Sachs hosted semiconductor companies during its China AI Tour on Sep 7-11 in Shanghai and Beijing, visiting chairmen, C-level management and factories across SPE suppliers, foundry/OSAT, fabless, GPU, GaN and EDA software. Five key takeaways: (1) rising semis capex for expansion, as generative AI and local demand plus production-site diversification drive accelerated capex from memory and advanced logic suppliers, with China semis capex expected to grow at double-digit rates through 2030E; (2) tight supply of upstream components/materials, with local SPE suppliers working closely with local and overseas suppliers to secure supply and product delivery; (3) SPE/EDA to benefit from growing capex and localization, with local suppliers expanding toward high-end tools and full-flow digital design and foundry EDA; (4) local GPU riding on local AI demand with product upgrades despite shortages and rising memory cost;