Australia Insurance (SUN/IAG/QBE): GI Mark to Market - Sep-26; Strong running yields supporting margins

Goldman Sachs published its September 2026 mark-to-market report on Australian general insurers (SUN/IAG/QBE). RFR rose broadly from Jun-26 to Sep-26; we expect fixed income MTM losses on assets backing technical reserves to be largely offset by liability movements for IAG/SUN, whereas QBE matches total assets across liabilities and is broadly hedged across both SHF/technical reserves and liabilities. Estimated Sep-26 exit running yields improved broadly: QBE ~4.8%, SUN ~5.8% and IAG ~6% (AAA+100bps). Corporate spreads were broadly stable to slightly higher, equity total return indices were broadly flat to slightly positive, and FX moves were modest (GBP/USD and AUD/USD broadly stable, NZD/AUD down ~1.2%). With QBE guiding to an ROE of 15%+ at 3% yields (implying a 92.5% COR), stronger running yields imply ROE and earnings upside, so GS upgraded earnings relatively more for QBE (~3-4% in outer years) than for SUN/IAG. Target prices: QBE raised to A$27.50 (Buy), SUN broadly unchanged at