这是美银证券《全球经济周报》（2026年10月9日）。核心观点认为，近期全球利率大幅上行暴露了多数发达经济体财政政策的不可持续现实，美国与法国最受关注，日本、英国等同样适用。报告指出"时间不一致的财政政策"是问题根源，使债务动态面临多重均衡；过去20年美国与法国债务/GDP分别上升约60和50个百分点，多发生在超低利率时期，问题不仅是低利率时代的过度举债，更在于融资条件逆转后政治上无力调整财政。报告分章节分析：美国方面，若美联储10月按兵不动、改为按季加息，好处是有更多时间评估数据并确定加息终点，风险是名义经济繁荣下落后于曲线，市场当时仅定价约20%的10月加息概率，作者倾向10月加息；法国方面，类似2011年的主权资产负债表审查回归，法国赤字庞大但双赤字并不突出，私营部门杠杆高导致偿债负担更重，但市场利率传导更慢；
Global Economic Weekly (09 October 2026). The recent sharp increase in global interest rates is exposing the unsustainable reality of fiscal policy across most developed economies, with the US and France in the spotlight, though the argument also applies to Japan, the UK and many others. We argue that time inconsistent fiscal policies are at the root of the problem, exposing debt dynamics to multiple equilibria. Over the last 20 years, debt/GDP increased by about 50pp and 60pp of GDP for France and the US, respectively, mostly during the ultra-low interest rate period. The problem is not only excessive borrowing during the low-rate era, but the political inability to adjust fiscal policy when the financing conditions that accommodated those deficits disappear. In the US, the benefit of pausing in October and hiking at a quarterly pace is more time to assess the data, but the cost is falling behind the curve given the booming nominal economy;