本报告为美银证券亚洲经济周报，聚焦澳大利亚住房市场调整及其宏观影响，并回顾区内其他经济体动态。澳大利亚房价调整已持续七个月，9月全国住宅价值下跌1.1%，较3月高点累计下跌5.2%，预计跌势延续至2027年一季度，峰谷跌幅约10%，略大于以往澳洲联储紧缩周期中的典型调整。尽管多年房价上涨令家庭拥有雄厚权益与流动性缓冲（资产价值超过负债六倍，多数房贷借款人储蓄充足），预计10%的房价下跌难以引发系统性金融压力，但将通过负财富效应、住房成交走弱、住宅投资放缓、小企业信贷收紧及州政府印花税收入下降等渠道抑制消费，估计房价下跌10%将拖累消费约1.3%，影响主要自2026年四季度显现。叠加需求走弱与劳动力市场降温，预计经济增长和通胀将放缓，支撑澳洲联储于2027年初转向中性立场、并于当年晚些时候降息。
This Asia Economic Weekly from BofA Securities focuses on Australia's housing correction and its macroeconomic implications, alongside a review of other regional economies. Australia's housing correction is now in its seventh month, with national dwelling values falling 1.1% in September and down 5.2% since the March peak; declines are expected to continue until 1Q27, with the peak-to-trough drop reaching around 10%, slightly larger than typical corrections in previous RBA tightening cycles. Despite years of rising prices leaving households with substantial equity and liquidity buffers (assets now worth more than six times liabilities and most mortgage borrowers holding sufficient savings), a 10% price decline is unlikely to trigger widespread financial stress. However, it should dampen consumption through negative wealth effects, weaker housing turnover, softer dwelling investment, tighter small-business credit and lower state government revenues. We estimate a 10% fall in house price