本报告为摩根士丹利对紫金矿业集团（601899.SS）的风险收益更新。分析师更新了大宗商品价格假设以反映大宗团队最新预测，并上调毛利率（GPM）假设以反映紫金的成本优势，据此将2026—2028年EPS预测分别上调6%/6%/2%；由于下调长期锂价假设，目标价由人民币58.0元下调至57.0元，维持「增持」（Overweight）评级。核心逻辑在于，铜与黄金作为公司核心支柱保持强劲（紫金铜产量全球第四、黄金第五），为激进增长提供规模、现金流与多元化支撑；锂业务正成为新的利润引擎，产量有望从2025年的2.5万吨LCE提升至2028年的30万吨以上，成本约人民币6万元/吨。估值采用DCF模型，假设WACC为7.5%（贝塔1.4）、稳态收入增速3%/年。
This is Morgan Stanley's risk-reward update on Zijin Mining Group (601899.SS). We update our commodity price assumptions to reflect our commodities team's latest forecasts, lift our GPM assumptions reflecting Zijin's cost advantages, and as a result raise our 2026-28 EPS estimates by 6%/6%/2%. Our price target declines to Rmb57.0 from Rmb58.0, reflecting lowered long-term lithium prices, and we maintain our Overweight rating. Copper and gold, the core franchise, remain strong, with Zijin's global volume ranking #4 for copper and #5 for gold, providing the scale, cash generation and diversification to support its aggressive growth pipeline. Lithium is becoming a new profit engine, with production potentially rising from 25kt LCE in 2025 to 300kt+ by 2028 at ~Rmb60k/t cost. Valuation is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 7.5% (1.4 beta) and a steady-state revenue growth rate of 3% p.a. Bull case PT is Rmb67.40 (20.5x 2026e EPS) with gold and copper at US$4.9k/oz and US$6.5/lb;