Mobily (7020.SE) 3Q26 Preview: Continued momentum in core Consumer supports margins amid handset softness and Business deceleration

We preview expectations ahead of Mobily's 3Q26 results (mid-Oct, date TBC), where we see the quarter setting up for healthy underlying Consumer momentum and continued strength in Wholesale, partially offset by subdued handset sales and a decelerating Business line as further spend reprioritization following the conflict begins to have a more material impact in the second half, with recent geopolitical events adding further uncertainty to spending budgets. Overall, we model group revenue of SAR 5,120m (+5.6% YoY), EBITDA of SAR 2,010m at a 39.3% margin and net profit of SAR 926m (+1.0% YoY and +2.4% YoY on an adjusted basis). With the operational mix, we see profitability better supported, with the skew driving a ~70bps sequential EBIT margin improvement. We sit 1% below consensus on the top-line, 2% above on EBITDA and 4% above on net profit. We model Consumer at +4.0%, Business at +6.0% (vs. +9.7% in 2Q26) and Wholesale at +12.0%. With the shares trading at 12x 1y fwd P/E at a 5.2% di