报告指出，2026年全球及美欧日三大经济体增长与潜在增速基本一致，财政宽松和人工智能热潮的正面推动抵消了伊朗战争与美国关税的拖累，2027年增长大体延续。但风险偏向下行：中东局势再度紧张令能源价格回升至此前高位附近，对消费和能源进口经济体形成负面冲击；长期利率较年初明显上行，若持续将通过地产、耐用消费品和企业投资渠道拖累增长；人工智能带来的增长脉冲将在2026年底至2027年初见顶，其对就业的冲击正从科技行业扩散至更广泛行业。货币政策上，预计美联储10月按兵不动、12月再加息一次，随后于2027年底至2028年初重启降息，加息次数少于市场定价；欧洲央行下次会议维持利率不变并于12月完成最后一次加息，法国债市波动加大下行风险；英国经济强于普遍认知，英国央行11月加息，加拿大、新西兰、澳大利亚亦将加息。
So far in 2026 global growth has been remarkably unremarkable, with the world and the G3 economies growing in line with estimates of potential GDP, as fiscal easing and the AI boom offset the drag from the war in Iran and higher US tariffs. Our standing forecasts project more of the same in 2027, but the balance of risks is on the downside. Energy prices have climbed sharply again on fears of renewed Middle East escalation. Longer-term interest rates have risen substantially since early 2026; if sustained, this would subtract meaningfully from GDP via weakness in housing, consumer durables and business investment. The growth impulse from the AI boom was set to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, and the AI labor market impact is spreading beyond the technology sector, with AI adoption now negatively correlated with employment growth. On policy, we expect the Fed to hike again in December before renewed cuts in late 2027/early 2028, fewer hikes than priced;