报告认为，2026年以来全球增长"平淡无奇"，全球与G3经济体增速基本符合潜在增速估计：财政宽松与人工智能热潮的正向拉动，抵消了伊朗战争与更高美国关税的拖累。但风险天平偏向下方：能源价格因中东局势再度升级担忧而大幅回升，汽油、柴油、航空煤油及欧亚天然气价格接近或超过去年春季高位，对消费者和能源进口经济体构成负面冲击；长期国债收益率上行（反映大规模赤字、与AI相关的融资需求及央行加息）若持续，将通过住房、耐用消费品与商业投资拖累增长。AI资本开支占GDP比重预计在未来一年放缓，叠加美国折旧优惠退坡，将压制资本开支增速；AI对消费的财富效应亦将减弱。AI对劳动力市场的扰动正从科技业扩散至非制造业，与就业增长负相关、与失业率正相关。货币政策方面，美联储10月大概率按兵不动、12月或再加息一次并在2027年底/2028年初重启降息，市场定价的加息次数偏多；
So far in 2026 global growth has been remarkably unremarkable, with the world and the G3 economies growing in line with estimates of potential GDP as fiscal easing and the AI boom offset the drag from the war in Iran and higher US tariffs. The balance of risks is nonetheless tilted to the downside. Energy prices have climbed sharply again on fears of renewed Middle East escalation, with gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and European/Asian natural gas near or above their March/April highs, likely weighing on consumers and energy-importing economies. Higher long-term bond yields—driven by large deficits, AI-linked borrowing and central bank hikes—would subtract from GDP through housing, consumer durables and business investment if sustained. The growth impulse from the AI boom was set to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, and AI investment as a share of GDP should slow over the next year, while the wealth-effect boost to US consumer spending is likely to fade;