本报告为高盛针对10月27-28日FOMC会议的前瞻圆桌讨论。报告认为本次会议大概率维持利率不变，声明可能调整政策指引表述以呼应副主席杰斐逊近期讲话，即未来是否进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间将取决于数据走势、前景演变与风险平衡。通胀方面，报告判断通胀仍处高位，核心PCE高于2%目标的超额部分主要由关税、伊朗能源冲击以及AI相关价格压力中被误测的部分共同解释；能源冲击已推升核心PCE，并在其油价预测路径下还将带来额外上行，若油价跟随更高的期货曲线则影响更大。AI需求对核心PCE的推升（含真实效应与误测效应）预计在2026年末见顶，2027年明显回落。金融条件方面，9月以来已开始更明显地收紧，但相对市场对联储路径的鹰派预期调整而言幅度仍属有限，尚不足以替代实际的政策紧缩，货币政策仍需保持限制性以稳定物价。
This FOMC Roundtable previews the October 27-28 meeting. Goldman Sachs expects no change in the policy rate, with the statement likely to adapt its guidance along the lines of Vice Chair Jefferson's recent remarks—namely that any further adjustments to the target range will depend on trends in the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. Inflation remains elevated. The team estimates that tariffs, the Iran energy shock and the mismeasured portion of AI-related price pressures account for all of core PCE inflation's current overshoot of the 2% target. The energy shock has already boosted core PCE inflation and will add further upward pressure under the firm's oil forecast, and more so if prices follow the higher futures curve. The impact of AI demand on year-over-year core PCE inflation, both genuine and mis-measurement effects, is expected to peak at end-2026 and decline sharply in 2027. Financial conditions have begun to tighten more meaningfully since September, but the t