报告认为，随着11月中期选举临近，美国政治与经济基本面已向民主党倾斜，基准情形为选后政府分裂：民主党夺回众议院的可能性很高，参议院归属仍是均势。参议院控制权直接关系人事任命与政策执行，若由民主党掌控，将阻止行政、司法及美联储相关提名的确认。无论参议院归属如何，2027—2028年重大立法通过的可能性都较低；分裂政府下财政谈判更趋困难，对临时拨款法案的依赖上升，政府关门风险反复出现，债务上限与国防开支或成为跛脚鸭会期的主要议题。中期选举结果还将影响民主党2028年大选布局，温和派与进步派候选人的相对表现值得关注。人工智能与数据中心监管的实质动作主要在州层面，联邦层面难有重大立法。外交、贸易与去监管议程更多依赖行政权，预计关税将继续降级，但选后贸易相关消息可能更为激进。
The political and economic backdrop has moved in Democrats' favor ahead of the November midterm elections. A divided government following the midterms remains the base case: Democrats are almost certain to gain control of the House, while the Senate remains a tossup. Senate control would matter for appointments and policy implementation, as a Democratic Senate could prevent Fed, judicial and executive-branch confirmations. Major legislation in 2027-28 is unlikely regardless of Senate control, and the White House could try to advance key priorities during the lame duck session, with fiscal risks remaining skewed toward higher outlays. Key Senate races could offer an early signal on the Democratic Party's direction, with the relative performance of centrist and progressive candidates possibly influencing the party's positioning ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Major federal legislation on AI model guards or nationwide data-center regulation is seen as unlikely under divided governmen