本周美国通胀数据整体偏强：9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，我们预计核心PCE环比上升0.30%，同比由3.0%升至3.1%，三个月折年率由2.0%升至2.7%。尽管通胀数据不利，美联储官员表态与市场定价均未指向10月加息，我们预计10月按兵不动、12月加息。9月零售销售整体增长0.8%，但剔除汽油和核心对照组分别仅增0.2%和0.1%，实际消费支出预计增长0.1%，三季度折年增速仍达3.5%。制造业产出反弹，过去12个月增长1.1%。下周重点关注10月PMI初值、9月住房开工，以及中国三季度GDP、工业增加值和固定资产投资数据。全球方面，能源价格反弹使通胀压力重新上升，但预计主要发达经济体近期不会收紧政策。
This week served as a reminder that US inflation remains hot. Following firm September CPI, PPI and import price reports, we estimate core PCE rose 0.30% m/m, lifting the year-ago rate from 3.0% to 3.1% and the three-month annualized pace from 2.0% to 2.7%. Neither recent Fedspeak nor market pricing points to an October hike; we expect a hold in October and a hike in December. September retail sales rose 0.8% overall but only 0.1% in the control group, and we expect real consumer spending to rise 0.1% for the month, completing a 3.5% annualized gain in 3Q. Manufacturing output rebounded and is up 1.1% over the past 12 months. Next week's key data are the October flash PMIs, September housing starts, and China's 3Q GDP, industrial production and fixed asset investment releases. Globally, the renewed energy price shock is rebuilding inflation pressure, but we do not expect near-term tightening by major developed-market central banks.