本期全球利率交易员报告认为，通胀消息虽为加息风险提供了底部支撑，但近期市场变化显示久期仍具配置价值：欧元区主权压力回流压低德债收益率，人工智能相关担忧则为美债久期带来一定买盘。尽管能源波动削弱了美债作为股票整体对冲工具的效果，但长久期在对冲人工智能主题上表现更佳。鉴于收益率仍高于公允价值、且债券基金仓位处于通常对应更低收益率的水平，报告维持对久期的建设性看法，继续建议在5s10s30s SOFR价差上收取10年期利率，并偏好以欧元核心利率曲线前端对腹部的平坦化交易来表达。英国国债因对能源高度敏感，年内回报相对抗跌，但要将相对韧性转化为明显超额表现仍需宏观逆风缓解，预算与财政空间是后续关注点。日本方面，长端日债压力缓解，曲线趋平，维持支付2s5s10s日元曲线5年期利率的偏好。
Inflation news has kept a floor under broader hike risks, but recent market developments have revealed where duration can offer value. Having seen Euro area sovereign stress feed back into lower Bund yields, AI-related worries brought a dose of support to US duration. While energy volatility has challenged USTs' value as a broader equity hedge, duration longs have been a better diversifier for the AI theme. With yields still on the high side of fair value and our estimate of bond fund positioning at levels that are typically consistent with lower yields over the subsequent quarters, we maintain our constructive tilt on duration and continue to like receiving 10s on the 5s10s30s SOFR fly. Despite ongoing signs of stabilization in OAT spreads, we think sovereign spread risks should remain a source of relative support to Bunds, with spread compression dependent on benign rate relief. Front-end versus belly flattening exposure is our preferred EUR core rates implementation in light of ling