UK Weekly Digest: How high will it go? A look at the 2026/27 gilt remit revision

This UK Weekly Digest examines the likely revision to the 2026/27 gilt remit ahead of Budget Day on 28 October. Five months into the fiscal year, the central government net cash requirement (CGNCR) is tracking nearly GBP 3bn ahead of the OBR's forecast, driven not by weaker receipts but by stronger ones: HMRC cash receipts are running almost GBP 3bn above OBR projections, with PAYE GBP 3.1bn, NIC GBP 1.5bn and corporation tax GBP 1.4bn above forecast, more than offsetting weaker VAT and self-assessment receipts. Lower valuation losses (around GBP 2.4bn) partly offset this, and we estimate the net effect raises cash borrowing by around GBP 6.5bn this fiscal year, taking CGNCR from GBP 137.2bn to GBP 143.7bn. An upward revision to the gilt remit looks inevitable, but T-bills can absorb part of the increase;