本报告为瑞银中国股票策略研究，探讨美联储加息对中国股票市场的影响。历史数据显示，美国利率与中国股票表现总体呈负相关（美国利率上升往往伴随股价表现走弱），但该关系并不稳定，中国股市整体走势更多由国内因素驱动，例如2015/16年受股市去杠杆影响、2022年则受益于重新开放。A股所受冲击通常小于H股，因后者更受外部资金流动影响。行业层面一致性更强：内需导向行业（消费与互联网）在加息周期中往往跑赢，而数据中心、生物科技与券商则倾向于跑输。高油价与美联储加息反而使中国股票在区域比较中更具吸引力，原因包括对石油能源依赖度较低、外资流动对A股影响较小、电动车渗透率提升及价格传导机制受控使消费者受高油价冲击较小；但中国整体消费环境仍然疲弱，外资主动持仓已处近五年最高位，可能抑制短期股市表现。
While historically US interest rates had a negative correlation with Chinese equities performance, i.e. a higher US interest rate tends to lead to worse share price performance, the relationship is not constant and the overall Chinese equity performance tends to be driven more by domestic conditions than external rates (e.g. 2015/16 was impacted by share market deleveraging while 2022 benefitted from re-opening). A-share market tends to be less impacted vs the H-shares given the latter tends to be more affected by external fund flows. There seemed to be more consistency within the sector performances with the domestic focused sectors (i.e. consumption and internet) tending to outperform during the rate hike cycle. On the other hand, data centers, biotech and brokers tend to underperform during those periods. No change to our overall market or sector calls as of yet as our US economists are not expecting a prolonged rate hike cycle. The higher oil price and US rate hikes do make Chinese