Semiconductor/SPE: Implications of ASML's 3Q results: 2029-30 inquiries expanding

ASML (covered by Sandeep Deshpande) announced 3Q results on the 14th at 14:00 JST and held a briefing at 22:00 JST the same day. 3Q 2026 sales were €11.7 billion (+25% QoQ), in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate, but the midpoint of the 4Q 2026 sales guidance of €14.7±0.5 billion is 5% above the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Full-year sales growth guidance is +36% YoY (by tool type: EUV lithography tools +45%, non-EUV tools +20%; by application: logic +10%, memory +75%), reflecting a stronger growth outlook than our WFE growth estimate of +31%. ASML plans to expand capacity by +30% YoY in 2027 and over +30% YoY in 2028, but demand exceeds this, with inquiries coming from customers for 2029-30. Management also noted progress on price negotiations, which should provide reassurance for Japanese SPE firms. On demand, management expects demand to continue to exceed supply in 2028, and is receiving inquiries for POs for 2029-30. Logic chip equipment accounted for 54% of 3Q 2026 sales