Protect Metals & Mining Exposure Against Copper Tariff Risk; Asymmetric Upside Play on Alstom Pre 1H27

If the US scraps or delays copper import tariffs, J.P. Morgan Commodities analysts see an immediate ~15% hit to copper (to ~$12,000/mt) with ~25% downside (to ~$10,500/mt) in a weak-support scenario, implying 13%-22% downside to SXPP even after the recent drawdown. Historical oil supply shocks and 10Y US yields above 5% have coincided with weaker copper prices and a rotation away from cyclicals to defensives on negative absolute returns. SXPP implied vol trades at the 85th percentile over two years and rich versus SX5E; we recommend buying SXPP Nov-26 €760-710 put spreads at €10.34 (ref €827) as protection, and selling SXPP Oct-26 €870 calls at €13.9 as a funding source, which can also fund SX5E relative-value structures. Alstom de-rated sharply after its April profit warning on "kitchen sink" fears, leaving a large short position;