本报告汇总摩根大通全球大宗商品策略团队一周内的最新观点，并附能源、基本金属、贵金属与农产品的季度及年度价格预测。原油方面，柴油成为多边协调的焦点：七国集团承诺加快释放紧急库存，美俄达成便利俄柴油出口的协议，特朗普亦敦促中国增加成品油供应，但实际增量取决于各国履约意愿与投放节奏，欧洲库存释放若以柴油为主并集中于前20天，短期效果最大。基本金属方面，维持对中国铜进口需求及年底供应风险的看多判断，2027年美国进口强度或下降，但除美市场接近平衡且库存覆盖极低，价格底部较高；铝的过剩预期使2027年价格看空；锌市场正越过中国/非中国分化峰值、矿山供应约束缓解，LME价格仍有下行空间；镍在印尼定价权下维持区间交易，当前约15000美元/吨低于印尼政策合意区间16000-18000美元/吨。欧洲天然气10月5-11日需求400百万立方米/日，环比增8%。
This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It also contains hyperlinks to other related research/podcasts on the global commodities market. Commodities Podcast: It costs a lot. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not exclusively affecting the energy side of commodity markets. Namely, agricultural commodities are becoming a point of convergence for high freight rates, fuel costs and disrupted logistics. Oil Markets Weekly: Together now. Diesel has become the focus of an unusually coordinated diplomatic effort. Over the past two weeks, the G7 has pledged to accelerate releases from emergency inventories, Washington has reached an agreement with Moscow to facilitate Russian diesel exports, and President Trump has urged China to increase refined product supplies. The answer depends less on the size of the announcement than on the government's willingness to de