National Silicon Industry Group (688126 CH): Time to revisit: uptrend just started

We resume coverage on National Silicon Industry Group (NSIG) with a Buy rating and a target price of CNY36.20, based on a target multiple of 20.0x forward EV/sales (around 2SD above its historical average) and our 2027F revenue forecast of CNY6.7bn, implying 54.8% upside from the 30 September 2026 close of CNY23.38. We believe NSIG deserves a higher valuation given its above-industry sales growth, wide product coverage from 200mm to 300mm and from wafer to SOI, and China's need for more domestic wafer supply to support memory and advanced-process fab capacity expansion. We forecast a revenue CAGR of ~28% over 2025-28F, with gross loss turning around from 2027F, net loss margin continuing to narrow, and operating cash flow remaining positive after turning in 2Q26 as depreciation accounts for a large portion of costs. Key risks: price recovery failing to materialize, overcapacity, prime-wafer qualification slips, and slowing demand.