US Tariff Impact Tracker: Indicated Imports into LA to Sharply Increase Next Week And Decrease Seq Two Weeks Out

This past week, laden vessels from China to USA were down sequentially (-5% WoW) and up on a YoY basis (+5% YoY). Data suggests TEUs coming into Port of LA will increase next week (+30% WoW) following this past week's -8% sequential move before seeing a decline of -1% WoW two weeks out (YoY is expected to be +40% and then +16% one week and two weeks out). What we will need to monitor is how levels move through September, which could suggest how shippers are deciding to restock, how peak could be starting (and whether there was an early start to peak shipping this spring), and within some cases how lower effective tariff rates impact import decisions amidst an uncertain geopolitical backdrop. We highlight that trucking activity on the West Coast, reflected in load availability and spot rates, has shown a meaningful decline over July and August, which could indicate some level of pull forward activity occurred in May/June but is now tapering off. That said, with imports into LA still poi