AWS Web Metrics Data: Late-Q3'26 update — softness persists

This Bernstein report is a regular data update on U.S. Internet and U.S. SMID-cap software, using AWS single-sign-on (SSO) web metrics as a leading indicator of AWS ex-AI revenue; SSO engagement correlates strongly with AWS base revenue growth in the following quarter. Prior web metrics showed the strongest demand signals since COVID and AWS ex-AI growth rising steadily, but growth began to slow starting in May and that softness has persisted through early September. The report argues this is not a Q3-specific issue: because the data leads reported financials by roughly one quarter, and Q2 metrics were still strong overall, Q3 AWS ex-AI revenue growth could accelerate again, whereas Q4 growth could decelerate more meaningfully with a larger YoY headwind than currently embedded. It also notes potential upside from AI-related revenue: OpenAI and Anthropic are Datadog's two largest AI-native customers and momentum reaccelerated in Q3, with accelerating token consumption across the AI-nati