argenx (ARGX.O) 3Q26 Recap & Model Update: All Eyes on Empasiprubart MMN Readout in December; TP to $1,232/shr

argenx's 3Q26 print was robust at $1.72B (+13.5% QoQ), once again reinforcing the strength of the gMG and CIDP base business, aided by growing penetration into the seronegative gMG segment roughly two quarters into launch since the May label expansion. Near-term focus shifts to the December Ph3 empasiprubart readout in MMN, the next key catalyst for shares, for which we see a high probability of success (80% PoS) with noninferiority as our base case; shares could be up ~5-10% on noninferiority, ~10-15% on superiority, and down ~5-10% on study failure. Beyond the MMN readout, the 2027 setup is favorable with five additional launch opportunities (pediatric gMG, ocular MG, IMNM, Vyvgart autoinjector and empasiprubart in MMN), supporting a potential revenue inflection in 2H27/1H28. We update our model for 3Q26 actuals and 2026 OpEx guidance of ~$4B, raise 4Q26/FY26 Vyvgart estimates to ~$1.94B/~$6.47B, add MMN revenues and remove Sjogren's. TP moves to $1,232/shr (-$69). Reiterate Buy, Top