Eye on Freight: Seasonal Analysis Would Suggest: Look For Truckload Spot Rate and Share Price Re-acceleration To Close Out Year

Following a significant increase in spot trucking rates over 1H26, trucking stocks outperformed both the wider market and other transportation subsectors (YTD return 31.5% vs 12.0% for the S&P 500), but recent seasonal declines in spot rates contributed to equities pulling back ~16% from mid-year highs. We highlight the historical strength in truckload equities that typically re-emerges in October and November, with spot rates generally re-accelerating through September and gaining further momentum in the peak November/December holiday freight and shopping season. Using 2014-2019 seasonality and min-max normalization, we estimate ex-fuel spot rates of ~$1.78/$1.91/$2.06 in Oct/Nov/Dec 2026, implying 21%-35% YoY growth. Tight driver/capacity conditions and a positive CASS freight volume inflect support continued contract-rate and margin improvement. We remain Buy-rated on truckload operators KNX, WERN and SNDR.