Power Tracker: US Data Center Outlook Largely Intact Despite Rising Political Scrutiny

While US data center development faces increasing political and community opposition, project data and our updated capacity estimates suggest that the US data center growth outlook through 2027 remains largely unchanged. Recent developments, including Governor Abbott's directive to halt new Texas data center permits pending ERCOT and the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) audits, highlight the growing scrutiny. Public sentiment has also turned more negative. However, our latest estimates point to only moderate near-term revisions: we raise our year-end 2026 US data center capacity forecast, while reducing our year-end 2027 forecast. We now expect US data center power demand to grow strongly in 2026 and 2027, assuming a weighted average utilization rate of 70%. Regionally, we reduce our 2027 year-end ERCOT and PJM forecasts, reflecting stricter interconnection requirements and political scrutiny. Effective peak spare capacity tightened across every key region this summer, in part due