Global Metals & Mining: 4Q26 Commodity & Equity Update - Mining runs on diesel and debt...what happens next?

Diesel prices hit their highest level since 2022 on 9 September, reigniting inflation concerns. US 10-year yields jumped 17bp in two days and have since risen another 25bp, testing levels last seen in 2007, with markets now pricing in another rate hike this year and potentially two more by mid-2027. Base metals excluding copper and iron ore have fallen as rate expectations rose, peaking around 9-10 September. The report reviews copper (ample US inventories but tight global ex-US balances), zinc, aluminium, nickel, precious metals (preferring gold), iron ore, met coal and thermal coal. Short-term the team is more bullish zinc, nickel and gold and more bearish copper;