Japan Insurance: F3/27 2Q Results Preview

Ahead of F3/27 2Q results, we think Sompo Holdings (OW), MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (UW), and Daiichi Life Group (EW) are relatively likely to be favored. Meanwhile, we expect 2Q results to clear the overhang for Tokio Marine Holdings (OW) and Japan Post Insurance (OW). We expect Sompo Holdings, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Daiichi Life Group, and Japan Post Insurance to raise full-year guidance when announcing results. If they do, we think Sompo's and Dai-ichi Life's revisions could be seen as catalysts. For MS&AD and Japan Post Insurance, the focus will likely be on the size of the upward revisions. We expect buyback announcements of ¥271.3bn at Tokio Marine Holdings, ¥70bn at Sompo Holdings, ¥100bn at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, and ¥45bn at Japan Post Insurance. Our sense is that ¥100bn at MS&AD may be slightly below market expectations, while ¥45bn at Japan Post Insurance may be slightly above. We expect no changes to DPS forecasts with 2Q results. We expect ESR to decl