China Insurance: 9M26E: NP Distorted by Acct. Rules amid Tech Stocks' Pullback; BV Stable; NBV Soft on High Base; CoR Enhanced

In 9M26E, we expect earnings to be notably affected by tech stocks' pullback in 3Q26, while the rally of high-dividend stocks would only be reflected below the line due to different accounting treatment. Coupled with a high base last year, we forecast 15–49% yoy declines in 9M26E earnings: CPIC -15%, Ping An -28%, PICC Group -29%, NCI -31%, PICC P&C -34% and China Life -49%. We think BV growth is a fairer metric to assess profitability and expect insurers' BV to stay largely stable qoq. We also expect OPAT of the top 3 insurers to log mid-to-high single-digit growth. For life insurers, amid banca regulatory disruption in 3Q26 and a high base due to last year's pricing rate cut, we estimate 9M26 NBV growth of +12% for China Life, -5% for CPIC/NCI/PICC Life and -14% for Ping An. For P&C, we estimate PICC/Ping An/CPIC's 9M26E CoR to improve to 95.9%/96.0%/96.9% despite higher NAT CAT losses.