2027 Issuance Outlook: Higher Gross and Net RMBS Issuance, Lower Agency Supply

The report forecasts 2027 US mortgage and structured product issuance. Agency MBS gross and net issuance are on track to meet the 2026 estimates of $1.3tn and $210bn, but are expected to decline to $1.2tn and $185bn in 2027 under a base case of mortgage rates averaging about 6.65% (ending 2027 at 6.40%, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.4%); a 7.0% mortgage rate scenario implies $1.1tn gross and $165bn net. Moderating net issuance supports a modest overweight view on agency MBS. Non-agency RMBS issuance is projected at $267bn in 2026 (+28% YoY), a post-GFC record, rising to $292bn gross and $115bn net in 2027, with non-QM reaching a record $140bn, prime $55bn and second liens $52bn. ABS gross/net issuance is expected at $278bn/$60bn in 2026 and $287bn/$73bn in 2027. Consumer sentiment surveys are a poor predictor of borrower performance, and improving real household income in 2027 should support consumer ABS credit quality. Risks are skewed to the downside if mortgage rates remain elev