宁德时代（300750.SZ）2026年三季度业绩前瞻：出货量强劲，但单位盈利成焦点；维持买入评级（确信名单）

CATL is scheduled to report 3Q26 results on Oct 20. We forecast net profit of Rmb24bn (+30% yoy, +7% qoq), based on sales volume of 260GWh and unit net profit of Rmb93/kWh. We see ESS mix (by geography and product), raw-material inventory impairment losses and the pass-through of battery consumption tax as the key swing factors. On the earnings call, we expect investors to focus on the demand outlook, progress in negotiations over battery consumption tax, the phase-out of VAT rebates for battery exports, and management's view of the recent de-CATLization narrative. We reiterate our Buy rating on CATL-A/H (both on CL), with revised 12-month TPs of Rmb559/HKD859, and view recent concerns over demand and competition as overdone. Reflecting the latest datapoints, we trim our 2026E-28E EPS estimates by 1-2%, as higher volume forecasts are more than offset by more conservative unit net profit assumptions.