NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET: ECOMMERCE TRACKER — September online retail GMV flat year-on-year; Alibaba & JD previews

September national online retail goods GMV growth moderated to broadly flat (+0.1% yoy) vs. +2.2% in August, while online services growth recovered to +8.3% (vs. +4.9% in August). Home appliances and electronic equipment sales remained resilient at +1.9% and +31.1% yoy respectively, supported by favorable base effects. Overall retail sales grew +1.1% yoy, above expectations (GSe +0.3%; BBG consensus +0.5%), driven by offline goods (+1.4%) and restaurant sales (+2.1%). With 3Q online GMV and parcel volume growth at +2%/+3%, below expectations, we cut 2026E industry online GMV and parcel volume growth to +3%/+4% (prior +4%/+5%), with 4Q26E at +2%/+4%. We also preview Alibaba and JD's September quarters, expecting earnings inflection/acceleration from continued year-on-year reduction in quick commerce/food delivery losses: Alibaba cloud revenue growth to accelerate to 53% at a 12.5% margin and E-Commerce Group ex-Quick Commerce profit +1% yoy;