日本9月PMI回吐了此前的强势，且降幅超出预期。全行业PMI下降1.0点至52.5，制造业与服务业双双走弱。服务业PMI降0.9点至51.6，显示成本压力上升下活动增长趋于停滞。制造业产出指数降1.2点至54.9，但前两月读数异常强劲、接近十二年高位，因此仍指向三季度制造业产出稳健增长，其动力很大程度来自旺盛的外需，可能包括AI相关需求。整体PMI与持续增长一致，支持三季度GDP季环比折年率略高于潜在增速（0.7%）的预期。商业信心继续改善，综合未来活动指数升至七个月高位，主因服务业强劲复苏。制造业需求仍具韧性但有所放缓：新出口订单自8月（2018年1月以来最高）小幅回落，新订单降幅更大但仍处本轮周期高位区间；制造商继续面临供应短缺，在手订单降至六个月低点，供应商交付时间指数回落1.4点，成品库存升至2023年6月以来最高，紧库存与补库需求料继续支撑年内后续产出。
Japan's September PMI gave back some of its earlier strength, and the decline was larger than we expected. The all-industry PMI fell 1.0pt to 52.5, reflecting weaker readings in both manufacturing and services. The services PMI dropped 0.9pt to 51.6, suggesting that growth in activity is stalling amid heightened cost pressures. Manufacturing activity also softened: the output index declined 1.2pt to 54.9. However, this follows exceptionally strong readings in the prior two months—near twelve-year highs—so it still points to solid manufacturing production growth through 3Q. Much of this strength appears to be supported by robust external demand, likely including AI-related demand. Overall, the PMI remains consistent with sustained growth and supports our expectation of slightly above-potential 0.7%q/q saar growth for 3Q GDP. Notably, business sentiment continues to improve, with the composite future activity index rising to a seven-month high, driven by a strong recovery in services. Wi