Turning incrementally cautious on profit reset, updating estimates/TPs; Buy JDL; Downgrade SF-H/ZTO to Neutral, Yunda to Sell; Upgrade YTO to Neutral

We are turning incrementally cautious over the China domestic logistics space, amid a broad based online consumption slowdown, convergence between parcel volume growth and ecommerce GMV growth, and sector-specific headwinds including over-capacity and base effect from anti-involution policies. While the sector has undergone a severe de-rating, we estimate further downside risk to consensus estimates as our projected aggregate industry profit is set to moderate from 44% yoy growth in 2Q26 to 13%/3% in 3Q/4Q26E, before resuming to a mild 9% growth in 2027E. We now forecast 2026/27/28E industry volume growth of 5%/4%/4%, and 0% to 1% ASP movement across Tongda players in 2027E, with industry EBIT per parcel at 0%-3% yoy in 2027E. We refresh our ratings and target prices: Buy JDL (our only Buy-rated name), downgrade SF Holding-H (6936 HK) and ZTO to Neutral, downgrade Yunda to Sell, and upgrade YTO to Neutral. We switch our valuation methodologies to PE-based (from EV/EBITDA-based), revisi