Global Data Watch: Asia — Early September data validates the PMIs

We were inclined to look through the contraction in Asian August IP both because (i) it was underpinned by country-specific idiosyncrasies (heavy holiday-calendar in Korea, temporary production suspensions in Japan); and (ii) the September PMIs surged to a five-year high. The early activity in September appears to be validating that assessment, with exports posting strong gains in both Korea and Taiwan, across the tech and non-tech sectors. Even though tech exports have corrected from their highs, they still remain very elevated in North Asia. Importantly, even non-tech exports have picked up in 2026 and are now running at a 30% annualized pace across Taiwan and Korea, suggesting a broadening of demand drivers in the tech economies. Central bank tightening broadens as growth remains robust: the RBI hiked 25bps and changed its stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening". Next week we expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to deliver a final 25bp increase in the FX policy slope