在卢比贬值压力与外汇储备(第一道防线)消耗的背景下,印度央行宣布启动第二道货币防线:限制外汇衍生品交易、对外汇交易征收20%外汇风险准备金(FERR)、并为三大国有石油销售公司(OMC)设立专项美元窗口。宏观审慎措施旨在遏制投机活动,但可能推高对冲成本并削弱外汇市场流动性,同时明确释放政策制定者对卢比进一步贬值的担忧。政策制定者正面临"不可能三角",措施成效取决于全球环境,若外部环境不改善,将需启用涵盖汇率灵活性、财政—流动性—货币政策及结构改革在内的更广泛工具。6月宣布的FCNR(B)计划曾使央行外储增加约1050亿美元,但不利的全球环境使卢比再度承压,仅靠央行激进的即期外汇干预及买卖外汇掉期(第一道防线)对冲,外储自9月第一周窗口关闭以来已下降约430亿美元。
Amid rupee depreciation pressure and a depletion of its FX reserves (the first line of defense), the RBI announced restrictions on FX derivative transactions, a 20% foreign exchange risk reserve and a special window to meet USD demand of three public oil marketing companies. The macroprudential measures (the second line of defence) aim to prevent speculative activity, but they are also likely to increase hedging costs and could dent liquidity in FX markets. That said, they are a clear signal of policymakers' discomfort over any further rupee depreciation. Policymakers are facing the impossible trinity, and the success of these measures will depend on global conditions. If these do not improve, then more difficult policy choices will need to be made, and a broader policy toolkit – encompassing currency flexibility, fiscal-liquidity-monetary policies and structural reforms – will need to be activated. The FCNR(B) scheme announced in June had boosted the RBI's FX reserves by ~USD105bn, bu