本周美元兑日元继续在158附近缺乏明确方向，法国财政与政治风险持续压制日元交叉盘，而市场缺乏日本政府养老金投资基金（GPIF）资金回流的证据则削弱了日元。日本本周公布的经济数据与事件（分行行长会议、工资、核心CPI及消费数据）进一步强化了我们的观点，即日本央行下一次加息将在12月而非10月，同时未来会议上两位鸽派委员仍可能投出反对票。针对投资者关注的日本投资者对法国国债（OAT）的活动，我们梳理了五大问题：目前尚未观察到大规模的OAT抛售，截至2025年底日本投资者对法国债券敞口约23万亿日元（约1250亿欧元），为对欧洲单一国家最大的主权敞口；大型寿险公司欧元兑日元对冲比率约为45.1%，低于过去十年均值但高于美元和澳元对冲比率。日元关注事项：周四二十国集团财长与央行行长会议后，美日当局可能进行口头干预，日本央行委员小枝发言及三季度家庭通胀预期数据是日本关键事件。
Limited moves in USD/JPY around the 158 level continued this week, with the French fiscal story weighing on JPY-crosses, while a lack of evidence on GPIF repatriation weakened the JPY. Economic data and events in Japan this week reinforced our view that the BOJ's next hike will be in December, rather than in October, while dovish dissents by two doves in future meetings remain. On Japanese investor activity in French bonds, we compiled our take on five major questions; the bottom line is that no large-scale OAT selling has been observed yet. Japanese investors' French bond exposure was JPY23trn (approximately EUR125bn) as of end-2025, the largest sovereign exposure to any European country, and the EUR/JPY hedge ratio for major lifers is estimated at 45.1%, below its past 10-year average but higher than for USD and AUD. JPY week ahead: the G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bankers' meeting on Thursday might be followed by verbal intervention from the US and Japanese authorities, while