摩根大通《下跌剖析:美国储蓄率的资产负债表视角》指出,尽管购买力疲弱,美国消费者依然保持韧性:1Q24至2Q26实际消费支出年化增长2.6%,而实际可支配收入仅增长1.8%,导致个人储蓄率下降约2个百分点。股市与房价大涨推动家庭净资产从4Q23至2025年末增加26.6万亿美元,今年至3Q26再增约16万亿美元。基于美联储资金流量表(FAD)分析,储蓄率下滑并非源于资产积累放缓,而是负债积累加快:股票与活期存款合计增加约7.5%的可支配收入,但被固定收益资产积累骤降6.4%所抵消;"其他"负债(私人贷款与垫款)上升约2%的可支配收入。由于名义收入强劲增长且杠杆偏低,家庭债务收入比反而降至91%,为1997年以来最低,资产负债表仍属健康。券商保证金贷款近期大增,但不计入NIPA储蓄口径。
The strength of US consumer spending has explained much of the resilience in the global expansion since 2023, despite weak labor markets and elevated inflation that squeezed purchasing power, resulting in a broad-based decline in household saving rates. Real consumer spending averaged a robust 2.6% annualized pace from 1Q24 through 2Q26 even as real disposable income grew only 1.8%, producing a 2%-point decline in the personal saving rate. A falling saving rate coincided with a huge rise in wealth: US household net worth jumped $26.6tn from 4Q23 through end-2025 and added an estimated $16tn more through 3Q26. Using the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts Data (FAD), the fall in the saving rate does not reflect slowing asset accumulation but rather a faster pace of liability accumulation. Net acquisition of financial assets rose slightly by 0.4%-point of DPI, led by a combined 7.5%-point rise in equities and liquid deposits, offset by a 6.4% of DPI collapse in fixed income accumulation