欧盟重卡：IAA交通运输展调研纪要

Yesterday we were in Hanover and spent time meeting with Daimler Truck CEO & CFO and then various representatives from Western OEMs Scania & MAN Trucks, as well as BYD, SuperPanther (private), Tesla, Cummins, among visiting other booths informally. New competition is hitting this consolidated industry and the visit was supportive of our view there are structural risks to this sector not currently priced into full valuations. The clear theme is a wave of Chinese competition. If the presence and floorspace of the Chinese truckmakers is indicative of future market share in Europe, the legacy OEMs have considerable pain to come. Long-term only a few of the 10+ new competitors will survive with a meaningful share of the market, but the push all are making could still be messy for incumbent pricing and margins, especially in less specialised highway markets. Today, ~2% of Europe's ~350k per year heavy truck market is battery electric and ~5% incl. medium duty trucks;