Amcor Plc (AMC.AX) Sep26 preview: Volume trends appear intact with associated earnings a source of potential upside. Resin price trends mean de-levering remains a CY27 story

GSe transition-period EPS is in line with guidance albeit interest expense/leverage likely at the high end of guided ranges. Our Dec26 transition-period EPS of ~US$1.85/share sits at the midpoint of management's US$1.80-1.90 guide. We are more conservative on net interest (US$320m, the top of the US$300-320m guide), reflecting an increase in forecast period-end leverage from 3.5x to 3.6x and higher rates, offset by underlying (ex-synergy) operating earnings towards the top half of guidance despite modest volume growth of 0.2%. We forecast flat Sep26 quarter volumes, consistent with Jun26, despite an easier comparable, allowing for ongoing cyclical pressures;