Novartis (NOVN.S): Thoughts into detailed remibrutinib MS data and KOL feedback to date

Ahead of Novartis' detailed data presentation at MSToronto2026 for remibrutinib in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) from its Phase 3 REMODEL-1/-2 programme, we provide our initial thoughts on the clinical bar, potential share price reaction and initial KOL views. Given recent share price outperformance since our last update (+2pp vs. ROPC and +3pp vs. SXDP), and with Novartis now only 5% below its post-remi MS/pre-pelacarsen & del-desiran price, we see risk/reward skewed to the downside heading into MSToronto with +0% to +2% vs. -5% to -7% (previously balanced at +/-3-4%). Our initial KOL diligence (n=5) suggests there is space for a medium-to-high efficacy oral in RMS, although initial uptake is likely positioned to select patients who prefer an oral, are refractory to CD20 antibodies (~10-20%), or have comorbidities. KOLs expect CD20 antibodies to remain standard of care, with real-world BTKi experience key to driving uptake, including management of adverse events and the administr