BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN): FY Q1'27 first take: output in line, FY'27 guidance unchanged

Our take: Q1 production broadly in line, FY'27 guidance unchanged. FY Q1'27 production was released last night (UK time). Copper was -3% vs JPMe and -19% QoQ. Iron Ore shipments were +1% vs JPMe (-1% QoQ), Met Coal was in line with JPMe and Energy Coal was +17% vs JPMe. All FY'27 production and cost guidance is unchanged (Iron Ore 286-298Mt, Copper 1,650-1,800kt), which is to be expected for BHP's first fiscal quarter. We do not expect any material change to FY'27 consensus estimates. We calculate BHP trades on spot 6.9x/7.4x 2026E/27E EV/EBITDA, 4%/3% FCF yield. We are Neutral on BHP's UK listing, whereas Lyndon Fagan is Overweight BHP's primary Australia listing. Noteworthy areas: FY Q1'27 iron ore shipments of 74.0Mt (294Mtpa, 100% basis) were +1% vs JPMe, with WAIO setting Q1 records at both mine and port despite heavy planned maintenance;