本报告为瑞银美国经济周报，主题为FOMC进入"新体制"。9月FOMC一致投票将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至3.75%-4.00%，主席沃什发表强硬抗通胀表态，称此次加息仅"移除了部分宽松"，最新点阵图显示中位参与者预计年底前还将加息25个基点、且到2029年利率需维持在3.5%以上。报告认为沃什的政策反应函数明显不同于历届主席：更重视金融市场信号与能源价格，对劳动力市场与实体经济关注度偏低，通胀基准参照疫情前二十年PCE通胀1.8%（低于2%目标），对"看穿供给冲击"持反对态度。团队预计下一次加息将出现在12月FOMC（10月会议大概率按兵不动，以避免中期选举前加息），2027年按兵不动并于6月降息，但风险偏向上行。
This is UBS's US Economics Weekly, themed "A new FOMC regime." The FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% in September. Chairman Warsh delivered a tough, inflation-fighting message, saying the hike removed only "a dose of accommodation." The September SEP dots showed the median participant assumes another 25bp hike before year-end and that the funds rate needs to be above 3.5% through 2029, even with inflation back at 2.0%. We argue his reaction function differs from all predecessors: he places far more weight on financial market signals and spot energy prices, appears relatively insensitive to the labor market and real economy, uses a hawkish inflation benchmark of 1.8% PCE (the two decades pre-pandemic), and rejects "looking through" supply shocks. We expect the next 25bp hike at the December FOMC (the FOMC likely skips October to avoid hiking six days before the mid-terms), then a hold in 2027 with cuts at the June 2027 meeting, wi