China Property: Expert call: medium-term supply gap, local execution in line, long-term outlook & property tax

On September 17, Goldman Sachs hosted Dr. Ding Zuyu, Founder and Chairman of Shanghai Purui Digital Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. and Dean of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, as the third speaker in its 2026 China Property Expert Call series. Dr. Ding viewed the 828 New Policy as a systemic institutional reform deliberated for roughly three years and a fundamental shift in the new real estate development model. On supply, he expects market supply to remain balanced in the near term as developers rush for construction/presale permits before August 28, but projects a significant 12-18 month supply shortage from March 2027 as new land projects must be topped-out or sold as completed homes and presale funds are locked in escrow until completion, before gradually stabilizing. On demand, he expects a year-on-year rebound in primary sales in 4Q26 with the traditional Golden September, Silver October season still evident, alongside a more active secondary market that ma