Chinese lithium sector - earnings revision

We forecast the benchmark China spot lithium carbonate price to average US$18.9k/t-LCE (~Rmb140k/t-LCE) in 2026E (1% higher vs prior forecast), US$13.7k/t-LCE (~Rmb100k/t-LCE) in 2027E (33% higher), and US$11.0k/t-LCE (Rmb84k/t-LCE) in 2028E (31% lower). Reflecting these revisions, we update earnings forecasts for covered lithium stocks. For Ganfeng, we adjust earnings estimates by 33% for 2026E, 120% for 2027E and -76% for 2028E; we view H-share valuation as fair (implied lithium price US$12.6k/t-LCE) maintaining Neutral, while A-share remains expensive (implied US$14.9k/t-LCE) maintaining Sell, with revised TPs of HK$31.0/Rmb30.0. For Tianqi, we revise earnings by 14% for 2026E, 45% for 2027E and -62% for 2028E;