摩根大通发布台湾ODM行业跟踪报告。多数台湾ODM厂2026年三季度营收符合或好于预期，分化源于客户结构与项目爬坡节奏差异。AI服务器方面，GB300受Neocloud需求强劲支撑，ODM直销模式渗透提升；部分CSP因TCO更优转向VR200，目标2027年一季度放量，致四季度VR机架出货受限（约7000台）。AWS Trainium 3程序于三季度开始爬坡。预计四季度因风冷向液冷切换而整体平淡。通用服务器三季度出货强劲，但四季度或因零组件错配而放缓，仅录得中低个位数环比增长；服务器存储供给2027年上半年改善，维持2027年服务器系统出货20%-25%增长预估。PC方面，三季度笔电ODM出货环比降17%，四季度初指引再降约8%，预计2026年下半年笔电出货同比降27%（上半年仅降5%），因上半年需求透支后终端疲软。
Most Taiwan ODMs reported in-line or better-than-expected 3Q26 revenue, with divergence driven by customer mix and differences in project ramp schedules. We continue to see strong neocloud demand for GB300 and increasing adoption of the ODM-direct model. In contrast, we believe some CSPs are prioritizing resources toward VR200, given better TCO, and targeting larger-volume production in 1Q27. Overall, we see order spillover to second-tier ODMs, consistent with our view of improving ODM pricing dynamics. AWS Trainium 3 ("T3") server programs began ramping in 3Q26. Looking ahead, we expect a muted 4Q26 during the transition from air cooling to liquid cooling, despite robust underlying demand. For general servers, 3Q26 shipments remain strong across the supply chain, while 4Q26 may see some moderation due to component mismatches. For PCs, NB ODM builds fell 17% QoQ in 3Q26, and initial supply-chain feedback suggests another ~8% sequential decline in 4Q26. We see emerging risks for the PC