本报告聚焦亚太存储芯片行业，探讨本轮AI驱动的存储"超级周期"与周期性的关系。摩根士丹利认为，AI令存储需求结构性上行，行业产能已提前数年售罄，HBM市场预计到2028年增至1000亿美元；HBM4价格约3.0-5.0美元/Gb，2027年混合ASP同比增约121%，存储价格有望坚挺至2027年。但基本面稳健未必等于股价便宜：三星、海力士股价较峰值低约35%，估值仅3-4倍NTM市盈率，市场拒绝为创纪录盈利给出完整倍数。报告强调超级周期仍是周期，供给终将追上，中国CXMT、YMTC是重要变量，渠道数据显示DRAM合约价4Q26环比涨10-15%、服务器需求为核心驱动。投资上相对看好AI算力与网络供应链而非存储，偏好CCL、ABF、功率半导体等具提价弹性环节，最不看好下游硬件；存储股自2025年9月以来已上涨约9倍，轻松获利阶段已过。
This Asia Pacific report examines whether the AI-driven memory supercycle marks the end of cyclicality. Morgan Stanley argues AI demand is structurally higher, industry capacity is sold out years ahead, the HBM market is forecast to triple to US$100bn by 2028, HBM4 pricing tracks at US$3.0-5.0/Gb and blended HBM ASP is set to grow ~121% YoY in 2027, with memory prices staying firm through 2027. Yet bulletproof fundamentals contrast with a cautious tale for stocks: Samsung and Hynix shares sit ~35% below peak at just 3-4x NTM P/E, as the market refuses to pay a full multiple for record earnings. The report stresses the supercycle is real but not the end of cyclicality - supply will eventually catch up, with China's CXMT and YMTC as major swing factors, while channel checks show DRAM contract prices up 10-15% QoQ in 4Q26 led by server demand. On stock implications, the firm favors the AI compute and networking supply chain over memory, preferring content-growth and pricing-leverage areas