Guming Holdings Ltd. (1364.HK) Investor Day takeaways: Store expansion pace reset but SSSG and store UE remain healthy; Buy (on CL)

We attended Guming's 2026 Investor Day in Hangzhou. Share price dropped by 8% today reflecting another cut on FY26E net store openings to 1100-1200 (from GSe of 2,000 in Jul and 3,600 in early-2026). That said, SSSG remains healthy with ~MSD% in 3Q26 and management targets to grow 0-5% in FY27E. Franchisee profitability improved further which paves the way for management's target of store opening re-acceleration next year and management reiterated its 30k-40k long-term store potential. All in all, we revise down adj. NP by 2%-6% in 2026-28E reflecting lowered store opening target partly offset by improved GMV per store assumptions supported by upgraded store format and new initiatives. TP is unchanged at HK$33 based on 20x 2026E PE and reiterate Buy as we see attractive risk reward after the share price pull back (13x 2026E P/E).