瑞银下调中国锂价假设，将2027年碳酸锂价格预测由20万元/吨下调至12万元/吨（含税，不含税约15,617美元/吨），依据基准情形下需求/供给分别增长15%/22%的成本曲线分析，但仍高于市场隐含的10万元/吨。需求端，8M26中国电池相关锂需求同比增长约60%，但储能（ESS）项目中标向装机转化偏慢或引发2027年去库存，预计全球锂需求增15%、储能电池需求增30%（2026年为64%）。供给端，基准情形假设全球锂供给增22%，但江西锂云母因反腐调查、津巴布韦出口配额均面临下行风险，而市场共识30%的供给增速实际假设江西生产无扰动。瑞银将中国锂板块2027年盈利预测下调50-56%，相应下调青海盐湖（QSLI）、天齐锂业及赣锋锂业A/H目标价，但维持四只股票买入评级，认为板块已超跌。
Following UBS Global Commodity team's cuts to its global lithium price assumptions, we further cut our China lithium price assumption to Rmb120k/t (from Rmb200k/t) for 2027E based on our detailed cost curve analysis of supply-demand under the base case scenario (demand/supply up 15%/22% YoY), but still above what's priced in (Rmb100k/t). We think the current market is likely overly concerned about the potential destocking of China BESS battery while ignoring the downside risk in supply attributed by the anti-corruption investigation in Jiangxi. We forecast BESS battery demand to grow 30% YoY in 2027E versus 64% in 2026E, and expect total lithium demand growth to moderate to 15% YoY, supporting a lithium price of Rmb120k/t LCE based on the global cost curve. On supply, UBS's base case assumes 22% YoY growth in global lithium supply in 2027E, with downside risks from limited incremental output of Jiangxi lepidolite and uncertainty over Zimbabwe's 2027 export quotas. Based on our updated