Copper: Catalysts & risks into 4Q26

LME copper has largely recovered the sell-down triggered by 'US tariff delays' on 10 September with 3-month prices holding above $14k/t. Whilst investors remain structurally constructive on the medium-term copper outlook, near-term sentiment is nervous due to US tariff tail risks. US tariff outcomes remain the key source of discussion and potential downside risk: the prospect of US tariffs has materially distorted the physical copper market, resulting in >1mt of 'excess' US refined copper imports over the last ~18 months, with US visible inventories now accounting for ~80% of global exchange inventories while China/ROW inventories are at critically low levels. In a scenario where tariffs are never implemented we see material (>10%) and sustained (3-6 months) downside risk to prices, but we view this no-tariff scenario as a tail risk, not our central case;